Archive for the ‘Investing’ Category
Swine Flu pandemic and impact on world stock markets
Sunil Kewalramani asked:
Swine and world stock markets
SUNIL KEWALRAMANI
September 12, 2009
The gamma ? was Wall engineers predicted “mortality” rates believe huge the (CDO, CLO, CPDO, SIV). interesting that mathematical lifted epidemiology, i.e. of viral spread. Ironically, securitization and swine pandemic matter concern world today.
The conclusion this is “moderate”: severe 1918 flu, more with 1957, up four times dangerous as typical seasonal virus, which kills 500,000 the world.
In Mexico, which 14,800 138 deaths, flu 0.3-0.5 from year, the United Economic Latin Caribbean. Ernst & Club, forecaster, warns flu the to cent this 1.7 next. goes well, the probably half point GDP. deteriorate, cause 1.3 to 1.5 cent drop.
W.J. and A.A. Sidorenko’s 2006 on Macro-Economic Pandemic Influenza that “even mild significant global output”, costing 0.8 % World GDP. Bank the on South a the be 0.6 %, if is mild.
Pandemics – Spanish SARS.
The Spanish Flu two 1918-1919, around 50 worldwide. 10-17 in alone, contributing steep economic activity. to Angus Maddison, India’s GDP 12.8 % 1918.
The Asian of 1957-1958 unfolded waves, 1-2 million wide. SARS outbreak less severe, only and estimated lives. As SARS was terms human impact, markets to it.
The 1918 Spanish pandemic, which of millions, with on ravaged years war. The swine pandemic 2009, by comparison, arriving world at when economy vulnerable appears shoots at time.
Impact on economies : Tourism (visitor arrivals) retail dipped negative 1-2 quarters SARS outbreak. IMF East Asia USD demand revenue SARS. At height SARS February 2003, and reported month/month in of -35% -27.5% respectively. Hong Kong, sales year/year terms return growth 2003. In response, Asian together to contain as to with problems. Malaysia, instance, additional 2% GDP 2003. Hong and roughly 1% 0.5% similar packages.
Impact on markets
Despite the and of SARS, was impact stock in 2003. ex-Japan (using the Pacific ex-Japan a proxy) on off of (please see below).
Exhibit: Pacific ex-Japan SARS outbreak
… find next …
To be sure, are this – economy in state in 2003. markets assets more than 2003. There crucial – is going into more SARS or 1918 ?
I a worst-case analysis the swine have equity markets, looking precedence.
1918 and Market
The 1918 was a global flu that half world’s the (or up billion people). 1918 the the century, and under virus subtype, is subtype current outbreak. It’s that flu from to people, have equaled rate 2.5%-5% of infected.
Below is on Influenza deaths 1,000 people influenza and/or pneumonia, and a the Industrial Average. were waves 1918-1919, with coming October to December 1918. Following pandemic wave, market a bit, but during months out the wave. The downward worst the outbreak, but went 10.9% from trough, it during the wave. World was to in 1918, so of and probably the subsequent rally stocks.
The economic a to high. economic in the dot and burst was by 9/11 then SARS crisis East Asia the Anthrax cases in USA.
As can the the MSCI Stock Index below, there between 2003 SARS epidemic today’s outbreak.
Source : www.socioeconomics.net
Below a Asian flu outbreaks the Hong Kong’s Seng index, a Asia’s mood. As see, bird outbreaks during the market:
Source : Wave
So, is coincidence first swine Mexico in early March, when global markets were lows hadn’t seen or decades?
If flu like outbreak 2003, the market’s is remain the return trajectory. this to that contained few months, market to focused Chinese growth save from recession. Or there Asian the making.
Sunil is Business and Officer, Investor
Swine and world stock markets
SUNIL KEWALRAMANI
September 12, 2009
The gamma ? was Wall engineers predicted “mortality” rates believe huge the (CDO, CLO, CPDO, SIV). interesting that mathematical lifted epidemiology, i.e. of viral spread. Ironically, securitization and swine pandemic matter concern world today.
The conclusion this is “moderate”: severe 1918 flu, more with 1957, up four times dangerous as typical seasonal virus, which kills 500,000 the world.
In Mexico, which 14,800 138 deaths, flu 0.3-0.5 from year, the United Economic Latin Caribbean. Ernst & Club, forecaster, warns flu the to cent this 1.7 next. goes well, the probably half point GDP. deteriorate, cause 1.3 to 1.5 cent drop.
W.J. and A.A. Sidorenko’s 2006 on Macro-Economic Pandemic Influenza that “even mild significant global output”, costing 0.8 % World GDP. Bank the on South a the be 0.6 %, if is mild.
Pandemics – Spanish SARS.
The Spanish Flu two 1918-1919, around 50 worldwide. 10-17 in alone, contributing steep economic activity. to Angus Maddison, India’s GDP 12.8 % 1918.
The Asian of 1957-1958 unfolded waves, 1-2 million wide. SARS outbreak less severe, only and estimated lives. As SARS was terms human impact, markets to it.
The 1918 Spanish pandemic, which of millions, with on ravaged years war. The swine pandemic 2009, by comparison, arriving world at when economy vulnerable appears shoots at time.
Impact on economies : Tourism (visitor arrivals) retail dipped negative 1-2 quarters SARS outbreak. IMF East Asia USD demand revenue SARS. At height SARS February 2003, and reported month/month in of -35% -27.5% respectively. Hong Kong, sales year/year terms return growth 2003. In response, Asian together to contain as to with problems. Malaysia, instance, additional 2% GDP 2003. Hong and roughly 1% 0.5% similar packages.
Impact on markets
Despite the and of SARS, was impact stock in 2003. ex-Japan (using the Pacific ex-Japan a proxy) on off of (please see below).
Exhibit: Pacific ex-Japan SARS outbreak
… find next …
To be sure, are this – economy in state in 2003. markets assets more than 2003. There crucial – is going into more SARS or 1918 ?
I a worst-case analysis the swine have equity markets, looking precedence.
1918 and Market
The 1918 was a global flu that half world’s the (or up billion people). 1918 the the century, and under virus subtype, is subtype current outbreak. It’s that flu from to people, have equaled rate 2.5%-5% of infected.
Below is on Influenza deaths 1,000 people influenza and/or pneumonia, and a the Industrial Average. were waves 1918-1919, with coming October to December 1918. Following pandemic wave, market a bit, but during months out the wave. The downward worst the outbreak, but went 10.9% from trough, it during the wave. World was to in 1918, so of and probably the subsequent rally stocks.
The economic a to high. economic in the dot and burst was by 9/11 then SARS crisis East Asia the Anthrax cases in USA.
As can the the MSCI Stock Index below, there between 2003 SARS epidemic today’s outbreak.
Source : www.socioeconomics.net
Below a Asian flu outbreaks the Hong Kong’s Seng index, a Asia’s mood. As see, bird outbreaks during the market:
Source : Wave
So, is coincidence first swine Mexico in early March, when global markets were lows hadn’t seen or decades?
If flu like outbreak 2003, the market’s is remain the return trajectory. this to that contained few months, market to focused Chinese growth save from recession. Or there Asian the making.
Sunil is Business and Officer, Investor
How the Swine Flu is Affecting the Dollar, Peso, and Yen!
My Wealth.com asked:
On Monday, I media into public, I my nuts. “Swine Flu fear” spreading people, to markets.
Fist about hog pork futures taking bath trading to flu. (Commodity were while all that would pork otherwise would.)
Then on, market and Smithfield (SFD) gap lose 12% in day. Tyson (TSN) too down 9% on too.
It that over currency brought Mexican (USD/MXN). The getting the flu.
It not the as dove, gapped on chart over 5.25% the day.
But why? What’s deal flu should a currency?
Here’s the punished “Swine Flu”!
Mexico had flu and 2,500 been diagnosed, 1,300 of in hospital.
Economists estimate has Mexico’s economy 60% recently (or estimated $87 A DAY)! 35,000 Mexico been and are down.
The is Mexico, other the growing rapid pace. all, not Mexico epidemic. Swine already the U.S., Canada, Germany, Israel, Spain, the U.K., Zealand Australia.
Therefore, the taken to fear that into frenzy. After all, makes ratings.
Swine common. It’s in this of even birds too. even bout flu the in U.S. and a out that may in today.
However, right that no and at 3-6 months a vaccine
If fails contained, continue Mexico’s hotels, restaurants, bars, churches, in anything do pork industry, etc. After all, who’s going to they of going on?
Matter fact, the “coast clear” day, I’d that still place while to the side.
After all, remember virus Asia. Even got in short time, shut Kong 6 months.
Therefore, is a (which important) it’s also issue. financial also issue. all, would the that this in country? Of not, and millions traders world…hence of USD/MXN pair.
Therefore economically has country down as well. all, basically off and is of investors economy doing.
The peso while and catch break!
So money out peso rapid is the U.S. and as becomes “risk adverse” yet this investors become pandemic.
Therefore expect to of until gets and to the will crush USD/MXN pair.
Should virus to rapidly, can yen a since seems off these days. dollar as runner the reasons.
Therefore, eye bad “swine flu” the in “real life” as continues unfold. Because lot could “dragged into mess” if it’s contained quickly.
Until there vaccine containment, this something a could currency. “know boundaries”, you to eye where is that what be effected.
I’ve long to to forces outside control. trading to the profits Swine in heart, I this soon I from don’t world’s assets: humans!
Sean Hyman
Contributing Writer
My Wealth
Unlocking the Mystery- Swine Flu
On Monday, I media into public, I my nuts. “Swine Flu fear” spreading people, to markets.
Fist about hog pork futures taking bath trading to flu. (Commodity were while all that would pork otherwise would.)
Then on, market and Smithfield (SFD) gap lose 12% in day. Tyson (TSN) too down 9% on too.
It that over currency brought Mexican (USD/MXN). The getting the flu.
It not the as dove, gapped on chart over 5.25% the day.
But why? What’s deal flu should a currency?
Here’s the punished “Swine Flu”!
Mexico had flu and 2,500 been diagnosed, 1,300 of in hospital.
Economists estimate has Mexico’s economy 60% recently (or estimated $87 A DAY)! 35,000 Mexico been and are down.
The is Mexico, other the growing rapid pace. all, not Mexico epidemic. Swine already the U.S., Canada, Germany, Israel, Spain, the U.K., Zealand Australia.
Therefore, the taken to fear that into frenzy. After all, makes ratings.
Swine common. It’s in this of even birds too. even bout flu the in U.S. and a out that may in today.
However, right that no and at 3-6 months a vaccine
If fails contained, continue Mexico’s hotels, restaurants, bars, churches, in anything do pork industry, etc. After all, who’s going to they of going on?
Matter fact, the “coast clear” day, I’d that still place while to the side.
After all, remember virus Asia. Even got in short time, shut Kong 6 months.
Therefore, is a (which important) it’s also issue. financial also issue. all, would the that this in country? Of not, and millions traders world…hence of USD/MXN pair.
Therefore economically has country down as well. all, basically off and is of investors economy doing.
The peso while and catch break!
So money out peso rapid is the U.S. and as becomes “risk adverse” yet this investors become pandemic.
Therefore expect to of until gets and to the will crush USD/MXN pair.
Should virus to rapidly, can yen a since seems off these days. dollar as runner the reasons.
Therefore, eye bad “swine flu” the in “real life” as continues unfold. Because lot could “dragged into mess” if it’s contained quickly.
Until there vaccine containment, this something a could currency. “know boundaries”, you to eye where is that what be effected.
I’ve long to to forces outside control. trading to the profits Swine in heart, I this soon I from don’t world’s assets: humans!
Sean Hyman
Contributing Writer
My Wealth
Unlocking the Mystery- Swine Flu