Sunil


Swine and world stock KEWALRAMANI

                                                             2009

The gamma was Wall engineers predicted rates believe huge the (CDO, SIV). interesting that mathematical lifted i.e. of viral Ironically, and pandemic matter concern world conclusion this is severe 1918 more with 1957, up times as seasonal which kills 500,000 the which 14,800 138 flu 0.3-0.5 from year, the Economic Latin Caribbean.  & Club, warns flu the to cent this 1.7 next. goes the probably half point GDP. deteriorate, cause to cent and 2006 on Macro-Economic Pandemic that mild significant global costing 0.8 World Bank the on South a the be if is – Spanish SARS. Flu two 1918-1919, 50 worldwide. 10-17 in contributing steep economic to Angus GDP 12.8 1918.

  The of unfolded waves, million wide. outbreak less only and estimated As SARS terms human markets to Spanish which of with on ravaged years The pandemic by arriving world at when economy vulnerable appears shoots at

Impact on economies (visitor retail dipped negative quarters SARS IMF East Asia USD demand revenue SARS. height SARS February and reported in of -27.5% Hong sales terms return growth 2003. Asian together to contain as to with problems. instance, additional GDP 2003.  and roughly 0.5% similar on the and of was impact stock in ex-Japan the Pacific a on off of see  

Exhibit: Pacific SARS find next be are this – economy in state in markets assets more than There crucial is going into more SARS or 1918 ?

I a analysis the swine have equity looking precedence.

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The economic a to high. economic in the and burst was by then crisis East the in can the the Stock there between SARS today’s : a Asian outbreaks the Hong Seng a Asia’s  As see, outbreaks during the : is coincidence first swine Mexico in when markets lows seen or flu like outbreak the is remain the return trajectory. this to that contained few market to focused Chinese growth save from recession. there Asian the is Business and Officer, Investor